The U.S.-Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered the largest oil price shock in recent global market history, according to the Center for Economic Renewal, Growth and Excellence (CRECE). Oil prices jumped from $66 to $115 per barrel, a 74% increase that CRECE says exceeds even the spike during Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, though prices later partly retreated on reports of a peace deal. Gabriel Capella, a CRECE research associate, said Puerto Rico faces the shock with no economic buffers, noting the island's economy has been largely stagnant since late 2023; the Planning Board had projected just 0.4% growth for 2026.
Capella said 93% of Puerto Rico's energy production capacity depends on fossil fuels, amplifying the impact. Gasoline prices have risen 50-60% and electricity rates about 20%. In May, inflation in Puerto Rico reached nearly 5%, with the transportation component of the consumer price index exceeding 12%, driven by gas prices.
Meanwhile, a natural gas tanker carrying cheaper fuel remains unable to dock due to a dispute between New Fortress Energy (NFE) and the San Juan Bay Pilots, further affecting Puerto Ricans' finances.