Puerto Rico’s economy accumulated a 0.2% decline between January and September 2026 despite four consecutive months of growth, while leading indicators keep a recession warning active, according to a report released Friday by economist Ángel Rivera Montañez on the Economic Cycle Indices. September’s study shows the economy beginning to stabilize after six months of contraction in which it lost 1.5% of activity, though the year-to-date performance remains below the same period of 2025.
The Coincident Index rose 0.4% in September to 111.4 points (2019 base year), accumulating 2.1% growth over the recovery months and 1.3% in the third quarter, its largest quarterly increase since the third quarter of 2023. Manufacturing and construction drove September’s growth, while nonfarm salaried employment and electric power production detracted for the first time in at least three months.
The Leading Index fell 0.6% to 105.0 points after three months of gains, weighed by costlier oil and derivatives, initial unemployment claims and estimated weakness in durable goods sales; it has held a negative annualized six-month rate, averaging minus 1.7%, for a seventh straight month. A preliminary Logit-Probit model put the probability September was a recession month at 15.8%, down from 72.4% in early 2026.
Rivera Montañez flagged high electricity, food, raw materials and services prices, consumer uncertainty, tariffs and industrial operating costs as risks, warning of a possible second consecutive year of decline. September figures are preliminary, using estimates for unavailable official data.