Puerto Rico’s Department of Economic Development and Commerce (DDEC) reported a slight economic improvement in August in its latest Economic Activity Index (EAI), while some economists warn a recession is imminent or may already be underway. The report, dated September 29 and written in English, tracks four indicators: non-farm payroll employment, electric power generation, gasoline consumption and cement sales.
The index reached 128.6 points in August, up 0.8% from July but only 0.1% above August 2025. From January to August 2026, activity was 0.5% below the same period of 2025; the fiscal year that ended in June closed 0.4% lower, after a 0.6% drop the prior year. On page 10, the DDEC says activity "continued its upward momentum for more than 30 months," yet the report’s own tables show 13 consecutive months of year-over-year declines (September 2024 to September 2025), six more negative months from February to July 2026, and only five positive months in the last 24.
August 2026 (128.6) is nearly level with August 2023 (128.5). Payroll employment stood at about 963,400 jobs, over 12,000 more than August 2025, and power generation rose 2.5% year over year. Gasoline consumption fell 4.5% and cement sales dropped 5.3% year over year.
Metro Puerto Rico asked the DDEC and economist Gladys L. Medina Claudio for comment; no response had been received at press time. Economist Ángel Rivera Montañez’s October 6 report found a similar picture, with a 0.4% accumulated decline, a 3.6% drop in retail sales, and a recession-probability alert indicating one is imminent or may be underway.