Puerto Rico’s economy has been shrinking since 2005, a recession now lasting 254 months, or 21 years, according to the report. Some economists describe this as secular stagnation: a state of negligible or no economic growth. Economist José Israel Alameda Lozada presented the hypothesis at the Puerto Rico Economists Association’s annual assembly on October 30.
Puerto Rico's economic problem is not cyclical,
Alameda noted that the island’s economy has taken many months to recover from past recessions: 51 months for 1973-75, 71 months for 1980-83, 18 months for 1990 and 17 months for 2001. This time, he said, the recession began in 2006 and "we’ve been in it 20 years and have not reached the peak." If the economy grew 1% a year starting in 2026, it would take 17 years to reach its 2006 level, meaning 40 years in total.
The Planning Board’s October projections foresee growth of 0.3% in fiscal year 2026 and 0.2% in 2027. Alameda cited rising fuel and food prices, abandonment of renewable energy, food insecurity, climate change, falling birth rates, rising emigration, high public and private debt, economic inequality and an inability to govern, along with a disconnect between Puerto Rico’s and the US economy’s growth.
"Puerto Rico’s economic problem is not cyclical," he said, adding that a sustained development model is missing.