The Cook Political Report has shifted its projection for the seat of Darren Soto, the Puerto Rican Democratic congressman who represents Florida’s 9th District, from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican" for his rival, Republican candidate Dan Green. The change comes as the Cook Report projects that Democrats, with Republicans controlling the House 220-215, will gain between 12 and 25 additional seats in the November 3 legislative elections.
Its latest analysis puts Democrats as favorites in 222 races and Republicans in 195, with 18 races still rated as close. Soto’s campaign chief, Emmett Shell, said the momentum is on their side and argued that Green is not the right candidate for the district. Soto, who has spent 10 years in the House and has represented the district since January 2017, has said this will be a close race despite Florida’s Republican government redrawing the districts to give his Kissimmee-based district an almost 18-point Republican advantage.
His campaign has released two internal polls showing him tied with Green, a former military man, and noted that in 2024 Soto received 9.5% more votes than Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.