Infrastructure

Tropics Watch: No Active Storms, but a 30% Chance of Development

Published Sep 16, 2026 · 787 Daily · Original analysis

As of September 16, the National Hurricane Center lists no active systems in the Atlantic basin.

The tropics are quiet right now. As of September 16, the National Hurricane Center has no active systems on the board anywhere in the Atlantic, and the only thing worth mentioning in the 7-day outlook is a single area of interest out in the Central Subtropical Atlantic, well outside Puerto Rico’s corridor. Its odds are modest, too: just 10% over the next 48 hours, rising to 30% by day seven, so this is something to keep an eye on rather than worry about.

We’re just past the climatological peak of the season, which fell on September 10, so activity like this is normal for mid-September even in a quiet stretch. Nothing points toward Puerto Rico this week, and residents and visitors can go about normal plans without any tropical concerns locally. As always, for official forecasts and any changes to this outlook, check the National Hurricane Center and NWS San Juan directly.

most active weeks peak, Sep 10 this week Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Nov 30
The Atlantic season, June 1 to November 30. The shaded weeks are the statistical peak, mid-August to late October, as on the hurricane hub; the dashed line is the climatological peak of September 10. 75 days of the season remain. A calendar, not a forecast — no system on this week's list is placed on it.

The 7-day outlook

Source: National Hurricane Center 7-day Tropical Weather Outlook, September 16.
Outlook area48-hour chance7-day chanceCorridor
Central Subtropical Atlantic10%30%away

Live tracks, cones and the Puerto Rico prep checklist are on the hurricane hub; the weather page carries the daily tropics line. Official watches and warnings: the National Hurricane Center and NWS San Juan.

This is the 2nd Tropics Watch of the season (last week’s is here). Source: NHC CurrentStorms.json and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued Wed, 16 Sep 2026 05:01:14 +0000.