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Daily Water Watch: Carraízo Enters the Safe Band

Published Oct 12, 2026, 6:07 AM AST787daily · Original analysis

At a glance

  • Carraízo fell 10 cm to 40.86 m, in the Safe band (Seguridad) — 1.16 m above the Watch line (Observación)
  • La Plata fell 5 cm to 43.45 m, in the Adjustments band (Ajustes) — 2.95 m above the Control line
  • Carraízo: down 10 cm today; up an average of 2.8 cm a day this week; 5.06 in of rain over the watershed this week
  • Day 67 of the metro rotation, the San Juan area’s rationing schedule — interruptions paused since September 2, and AAA has not canceled it; the plan began August 7; levels from AAA’s 5:00 AM chart

Why this matters: The number that matters is the gap to the next band line: 1.16 m for Carraízo, 2.95 m for La Plata. Straight-line dates move every day — the daily check is the point.

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Carraízo crossed into the Safe band (Seguridad) this morning, at 40.86 meters. This morning’s 5:00 chart from the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (AAA) shows La Plata at 43.45 meters — down 5 centimeters from yesterday.

Service today

Day 67 of the metro rotation, the San Juan area’s rationing schedule — interruptions paused since September 2, and AAA has not canceled it.

AAA’s Cedro Arriba plan in Naranjito is in effect: Zone C and Zone D take turns every 48 hours; Zone C has water until Wednesday at 6:00 AM.

AAA has posted no plan change, open outage or water-quality notice in the last three days.

Every notice AAA posts is on the water page, in its own words.

Reservoirs

Carraízo: down 10 cm

Carraízo slipped overnight. The level crossed a band line: the chart now reads Safe, down from the Spilling band (Desborde) yesterday. This morning’s chart puts it at 40.86 meters — down 10 centimeters from yesterday, in the Safe band. The next line on the chart — into the Watch band (Observación) — sits at 39.70 meters, 1.16 meters below this morning’s reading.

Adjustments Watch Safe 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0 39.5 40.0 40.5 41.0 Aug 14 Sep 12 Oct 12 Oct 3, 40.70 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, Safe Aug 14, 37.86 m, AdjustmentsAug 15, 37.85 m, −1 cm, AdjustmentsAug 16, 37.82 m, −3 cm, AdjustmentsAug 17, 37.76 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsAug 18, 37.69 m, −7 cm, AdjustmentsAug 19, 37.63 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsAug 20, 37.57 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsAug 21, 37.52 m, −5 cm, AdjustmentsAug 22, 37.46 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsAug 23, 37.41 m, −5 cm, AdjustmentsAug 24, 37.34 m, −7 cm, AdjustmentsAug 25, 37.32 m, −2 cm, AdjustmentsAug 26, 37.30 m, −2 cm, AdjustmentsAug 27, 37.26 m, −4 cm, AdjustmentsAug 28, 37.20 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsAug 29, 37.14 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsAug 30, 37.07 m, −7 cm, AdjustmentsAug 31, 37.14 m, +7 cm, AdjustmentsSep 1, 37.20 m, +6 cm, AdjustmentsSep 2, 38.92 m, +172 cm, WatchSep 3, 39.11 m, +19 cm, WatchSep 4, 39.09 m, −2 cm, WatchSep 5, 39.01 m, −8 cm, WatchSep 6, 38.94 m, −7 cm, WatchSep 7, 38.87 m, −7 cm, WatchSep 8, 38.83 m, −4 cm, WatchSep 9, 39.02 m, +19 cm, WatchSep 10, 39.07 m, +5 cm, WatchSep 11, 39.20 m, +13 cm, WatchSep 12, 39.19 m, −1 cm, WatchSep 13, 39.14 m, −5 cm, WatchSep 14, 39.16 m, +2 cm, WatchSep 15, 39.25 m, +9 cm, WatchSep 16, 39.23 m, −2 cm, WatchSep 17, 40.06 m, +83 cm, SafeSep 18, 40.64 m, +58 cm, SafeSep 19, 40.80 m, +16 cm, SafeSep 20, 40.81 m, +1 cm, SafeSep 21, 40.79 m, −2 cm, SafeSep 22, 40.75 m, −4 cm, SafeSep 23, 40.70 m, −5 cm, SafeSep 24, 40.68 m, −2 cm, SafeSep 25, 40.68 m, +0 cm, SafeSep 26, 40.67 m, −1 cm, SafeSep 27, 40.63 m, −4 cm, SafeSep 28, 40.58 m, −5 cm, SafeSep 29, 40.53 m, −5 cm, SafeSep 30, 40.51 m, −2 cm, SafeOct 1, 40.47 m, −4 cm, SafeOct 2, 40.60 m, +13 cm, SafeOct 4, 40.74 m, +4 cm, SafeOct 5, 40.72 m, −2 cm, SafeOct 6, 40.69 m, −3 cm, SafeOct 7, 40.65 m, −4 cm, SafeOct 8, 40.88 m, +23 cm, SafeOct 9, 40.94 m, +6 cm, SafeOct 10, 40.91 m, −3 cm, SafeOct 11, 40.96 m, +5 cm, SpillingOct 12, 40.86 m, −10 cm, Safe 40.86 m Oct 6, 0.24 in of rainOct 7, 0.8 in of rainOct 8, 0.13 in of rainOct 9, 0.05 in of rainOct 10, 2.73 in of rainOct 11, 1.11 in of rain rain to 2.73 in
Carraízo since Aug 14, meters above sea level, shaded by AAA alert band, with daily rain from USGS gauges within 12 km. Data: AAA Monitoreo Diario; hollow points are the USGS gauge's 5 AM reading on mornings AAA's chart has none (AAA's own record here starts Aug 14).
Show the numbers
  • Oct 3, 40.70 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, Safe
  • Aug 14, 37.86 m, Adjustments
  • Aug 15, 37.85 m, −1 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 16, 37.82 m, −3 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 17, 37.76 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 18, 37.69 m, −7 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 19, 37.63 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 20, 37.57 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 21, 37.52 m, −5 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 22, 37.46 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 23, 37.41 m, −5 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 24, 37.34 m, −7 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 25, 37.32 m, −2 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 26, 37.30 m, −2 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 27, 37.26 m, −4 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 28, 37.20 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 29, 37.14 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 30, 37.07 m, −7 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 31, 37.14 m, +7 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 1, 37.20 m, +6 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 2, 38.92 m, +172 cm, Watch
  • Sep 3, 39.11 m, +19 cm, Watch
  • Sep 4, 39.09 m, −2 cm, Watch
  • Sep 5, 39.01 m, −8 cm, Watch
  • Sep 6, 38.94 m, −7 cm, Watch
  • Sep 7, 38.87 m, −7 cm, Watch
  • Sep 8, 38.83 m, −4 cm, Watch
  • Sep 9, 39.02 m, +19 cm, Watch
  • Sep 10, 39.07 m, +5 cm, Watch
  • Sep 11, 39.20 m, +13 cm, Watch
  • Sep 12, 39.19 m, −1 cm, Watch
  • Sep 13, 39.14 m, −5 cm, Watch
  • Sep 14, 39.16 m, +2 cm, Watch
  • Sep 15, 39.25 m, +9 cm, Watch
  • Sep 16, 39.23 m, −2 cm, Watch
  • Sep 17, 40.06 m, +83 cm, Safe
  • Sep 18, 40.64 m, +58 cm, Safe
  • Sep 19, 40.80 m, +16 cm, Safe
  • Sep 20, 40.81 m, +1 cm, Safe
  • Sep 21, 40.79 m, −2 cm, Safe
  • Sep 22, 40.75 m, −4 cm, Safe
  • Sep 23, 40.70 m, −5 cm, Safe
  • Sep 24, 40.68 m, −2 cm, Safe
  • Sep 25, 40.68 m, +0 cm, Safe
  • Sep 26, 40.67 m, −1 cm, Safe
  • Sep 27, 40.63 m, −4 cm, Safe
  • Sep 28, 40.58 m, −5 cm, Safe
  • Sep 29, 40.53 m, −5 cm, Safe
  • Sep 30, 40.51 m, −2 cm, Safe
  • Oct 1, 40.47 m, −4 cm, Safe
  • Oct 2, 40.60 m, +13 cm, Safe
  • Oct 4, 40.74 m, +4 cm, Safe
  • Oct 5, 40.72 m, −2 cm, Safe
  • Oct 6, 40.69 m, −3 cm, Safe
  • Oct 7, 40.65 m, −4 cm, Safe
  • Oct 8, 40.88 m, +23 cm, Safe
  • Oct 9, 40.94 m, +6 cm, Safe
  • Oct 10, 40.91 m, −3 cm, Safe
  • Oct 11, 40.96 m, +5 cm, Spilling
  • Oct 12, 40.86 m, −10 cm, Safe
  • Oct 6, 0.24 in of rain
  • Oct 7, 0.8 in of rain
  • Oct 8, 0.13 in of rain
  • Oct 9, 0.05 in of rain
  • Oct 10, 2.73 in of rain
  • Oct 11, 1.11 in of rain

Carraízo, October 12

Level today
40.86 mSafe band
Change since yesterday
−10 cm
To the Watch line
1.16 mline at 39.70 m
At this week's pace
rising

La Plata: down 5 cm

La Plata kept sliding. This morning’s chart puts it at 43.45 meters — down 5 centimeters from yesterday, in the Adjustments band (Ajustes). The next line on the chart — into the Control band — sits at 40.50 meters, 2.95 meters below this morning’s reading.

If your water comes from La Plata — Dorado, Guaynabo, Naranjito, Toa Alta, Toa Baja, Vega Alta, Bayamón, Cataño, Corozal — this is the reservoir to watch; AAA lists 130,828 client accounts on it.

Adjustments Watch Safe 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 Aug 14 Sep 12 Oct 12 Oct 3, 43.87 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, Adjustments Aug 14, 46.02 m, WatchAug 15, 45.95 m, −7 cm, WatchAug 16, 45.88 m, −7 cm, WatchAug 17, 45.80 m, −8 cm, WatchAug 18, 45.71 m, −9 cm, WatchAug 19, 45.62 m, −9 cm, WatchAug 20, 45.55 m, −7 cm, WatchAug 21, 45.49 m, −6 cm, WatchAug 22, 45.42 m, −7 cm, WatchAug 23, 45.35 m, −7 cm, WatchAug 24, 45.28 m, −7 cm, WatchAug 25, 45.23 m, −5 cm, WatchAug 26, 45.15 m, −8 cm, WatchAug 27, 45.04 m, −11 cm, WatchAug 28, 44.93 m, −11 cm, WatchAug 29, 44.83 m, −10 cm, AdjustmentsAug 30, 44.72 m, −11 cm, AdjustmentsAug 31, 44.67 m, −5 cm, AdjustmentsSep 1, 44.59 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsSep 2, 44.59 m, +0 cm, AdjustmentsSep 3, 44.59 m, +0 cm, AdjustmentsSep 4, 44.57 m, −2 cm, AdjustmentsSep 5, 44.54 m, −3 cm, AdjustmentsSep 6, 44.52 m, −2 cm, AdjustmentsSep 7, 44.46 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsSep 8, 44.40 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsSep 9, 44.32 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsSep 10, 44.24 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsSep 11, 44.14 m, −10 cm, AdjustmentsSep 12, 44.25 m, +11 cm, AdjustmentsSep 13, 44.26 m, +1 cm, AdjustmentsSep 14, 44.40 m, +14 cm, AdjustmentsSep 15, 44.46 m, +6 cm, AdjustmentsSep 16, 44.40 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsSep 17, 44.36 m, −4 cm, AdjustmentsSep 18, 44.40 m, +4 cm, AdjustmentsSep 19, 44.61 m, +21 cm, AdjustmentsSep 20, 44.66 m, +5 cm, AdjustmentsSep 21, 44.70 m, +4 cm, AdjustmentsSep 22, 44.72 m, +2 cm, AdjustmentsSep 23, 44.68 m, −4 cm, AdjustmentsSep 24, 44.63 m, −5 cm, AdjustmentsSep 25, 44.56 m, −7 cm, AdjustmentsSep 26, 44.47 m, −9 cm, AdjustmentsSep 27, 44.39 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsSep 28, 44.31 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsSep 29, 44.22 m, −9 cm, AdjustmentsSep 30, 44.13 m, −9 cm, AdjustmentsOct 1, 44.04 m, −9 cm, AdjustmentsOct 2, 43.96 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsOct 4, 43.79 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsOct 5, 43.71 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsOct 6, 43.70 m, −1 cm, AdjustmentsOct 7, 43.68 m, −2 cm, AdjustmentsOct 8, 43.62 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsOct 9, 43.54 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsOct 10, 43.52 m, −2 cm, AdjustmentsOct 11, 43.50 m, −2 cm, AdjustmentsOct 12, 43.45 m, −5 cm, Adjustments 43.45 m at ~4 cm/day Oct 6, 0.19 in of rainOct 7, 0.24 in of rainOct 8, 0.02 in of rainOct 9, 0.15 in of rainOct 10, 0.92 in of rainOct 11, 0.11 in of rain rain to 0.92 in
La Plata since Aug 14, meters above sea level, shaded by AAA alert band, with daily rain from USGS gauges within 12 km. Data: AAA Monitoreo Diario; hollow points are the USGS gauge's 5 AM reading on mornings AAA's chart has none (AAA's own record here starts Aug 14).
Show the numbers
  • Oct 3, 43.87 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, Adjustments
  • Aug 14, 46.02 m, Watch
  • Aug 15, 45.95 m, −7 cm, Watch
  • Aug 16, 45.88 m, −7 cm, Watch
  • Aug 17, 45.80 m, −8 cm, Watch
  • Aug 18, 45.71 m, −9 cm, Watch
  • Aug 19, 45.62 m, −9 cm, Watch
  • Aug 20, 45.55 m, −7 cm, Watch
  • Aug 21, 45.49 m, −6 cm, Watch
  • Aug 22, 45.42 m, −7 cm, Watch
  • Aug 23, 45.35 m, −7 cm, Watch
  • Aug 24, 45.28 m, −7 cm, Watch
  • Aug 25, 45.23 m, −5 cm, Watch
  • Aug 26, 45.15 m, −8 cm, Watch
  • Aug 27, 45.04 m, −11 cm, Watch
  • Aug 28, 44.93 m, −11 cm, Watch
  • Aug 29, 44.83 m, −10 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 30, 44.72 m, −11 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 31, 44.67 m, −5 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 1, 44.59 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 2, 44.59 m, +0 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 3, 44.59 m, +0 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 4, 44.57 m, −2 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 5, 44.54 m, −3 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 6, 44.52 m, −2 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 7, 44.46 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 8, 44.40 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 9, 44.32 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 10, 44.24 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 11, 44.14 m, −10 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 12, 44.25 m, +11 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 13, 44.26 m, +1 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 14, 44.40 m, +14 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 15, 44.46 m, +6 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 16, 44.40 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 17, 44.36 m, −4 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 18, 44.40 m, +4 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 19, 44.61 m, +21 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 20, 44.66 m, +5 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 21, 44.70 m, +4 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 22, 44.72 m, +2 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 23, 44.68 m, −4 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 24, 44.63 m, −5 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 25, 44.56 m, −7 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 26, 44.47 m, −9 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 27, 44.39 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 28, 44.31 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 29, 44.22 m, −9 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 30, 44.13 m, −9 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 1, 44.04 m, −9 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 2, 43.96 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 4, 43.79 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 5, 43.71 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 6, 43.70 m, −1 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 7, 43.68 m, −2 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 8, 43.62 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 9, 43.54 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 10, 43.52 m, −2 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 11, 43.50 m, −2 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 12, 43.45 m, −5 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 6, 0.19 in of rain
  • Oct 7, 0.24 in of rain
  • Oct 8, 0.02 in of rain
  • Oct 9, 0.15 in of rain
  • Oct 10, 0.92 in of rain
  • Oct 11, 0.11 in of rain

La Plata, October 12

Level today
43.45 mAdjustments band
Change since yesterday
−5 cm
To the Control line
2.95 mline at 40.50 m
At this week's pace
months awaythe decline is very shallow

The other rationing reservoir

Cidra, October 12

Level today
400.66 mWatch band
Change since yesterday
+1 cm
To the Adjustments line
0.43 mline at 400.23 m
This morning
rising

Outlook

What the numbers say

The week’s pattern is a split. Carraízo and Cidra are both climbing, while La Plata is still sinking, though more slowly than before. Carraízo is the clearest recovery, but this morning’s reading dipped 10 cm, the largest single-morning drop in the past two weeks. That drop interrupts the climb and means the projection to the Spilling line is arithmetic at the week’s pace, not a forecast. La Plata’s slide has eased from 8.5 cm a day to 4.2, which is meaningful, yet it has now fallen 20 mornings in a row.

Rain has helped unevenly. Cidra took in rain across several days, and its level responded with small gains each time, mostly a few centimeters. Carraízo’s biggest response came after the lighter October 7 rainfall, not after the much heavier October 10 storm, which suggests rainfall totals alone don’t tell the story. The metro rotation’s scheduled interruptions are not running, so none of these changes can be credited to it. At current paces, Cidra is the slowest to reach its next line up, more than seven weeks by arithmetic, while La Plata’s drop toward the Control line is more than two months away.

What to watch

  • Carraízo: whether the rise survives a dry week — this week’s gain came with 5.06 in of rain nearby.
  • La Plata: whether the slowdown holds — a second week under 8.5 cm a day would show the decline easing.
  • Cidra: whether the rise survives a dry week — this week’s gain came with 4.67 in of rain nearby.
  • Río Grande, Canóvanas and Loíza: whether AAA says in public that the east-side rationing is over, and posts that the Canóvanas filtration plant is back in operation.
  • Naranjito: AAA’s Cedro Arriba plan — its calendar runs through October 31; whether AAA extends it, changes the phase or ends it.

Lake levels

The USGS gauge at Carraízo read 40.89 meters at 5:45 AM. The USGS gauge at La Plata read 43.44 meters at 6:00 AM. The USGS gauge at Cidra read 400.66 meters at 5:45 AM.

The gauges report every quarter hour and their readings are provisional; the bands are measured on AAA’s 5:00 chart.

How we read the data

This is the 57th Daily Water Watch (yesterday’s is here). The levels update every morning on the water page.

Levels: AAA’s daily reservoir chart, October 12. Rain: USGS gauges within 12 km of each reservoir. Day counts start August 7, when the metro rotation took effect. Straight-line dates are arithmetic, not forecasts. How we report.

In context — 787daily, from public data

About this analysis
Cite this

Source: 787daily, “Daily Water Watch: Carraízo Enters the Safe Band”, Oct 12, 2026 — https://787daily.com/news/2026-10-12-daily-water-watch-carraizo-enters-the-safe-band/

Numbers from
AAA's 5 AM reservoir chart, validated daily
Use our data
Today (JSON) · Reservoir history (CSV).Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0: credit 787daily.com with a link.

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