Daily Water Watch: Carraízo at 38.94 Meters

Day 30 of the metro rotation plan — interruptions paused since September 2, plan still in force. This morning’s 5:00 chart from the Autoridad de Acueductos y Alcantarillados shows Carraízo at 38.94 meters — down 7 centimeters from yesterday, and La Plata at 44.52 meters — down 2 centimeters from yesterday.

This is the 27th entry in our daily chart check (yesterday’s is here), built the same way every morning — from AAA’s own numbers, read off its charts for our reservoir board.

Carraízo: down 7 cm

Carraízo kept sliding. This morning’s chart puts it at 38.94 meters — down 7 centimeters from yesterday, in the observación band. The next line on the chart — into the ajustes band — sits at 38.50 meters, 0.44 meters below this morning’s reading. At AAA’s printed pace that is roughly 6.3 days out (straight-line date: 2026-09-13 — a projection, not a forecast; one wet afternoon moves it).

La Plata: down 2 cm

La Plata kept sliding. This morning’s chart puts it at 44.52 meters — down 2 centimeters from yesterday, in the ajustes band. The next line on the chart — into the control band — sits at 40.50 meters, 4.02 meters below this morning’s reading.

If your water comes from La Plata — Dorado, Guaynabo, Naranjito, Toa Alta, Toa Baja, Vega Alta, Bayamón, Cataño, Corozal — this is the reservoir to watch; AAA lists 130,828 client accounts on it.

What the numbers say

Carraízo has swung sharply: the trailing week shows a 30 cm-a-day average rise, reversing the 4.5 cm-a-day decline logged the week before, even though the reservoir is still on a 3-morning losing streak that totals -17 cm. The turnaround traces to September 1’s 1.14 in of rain, which was followed by a single-morning jump of 172 cm. At the current 7-day pace, Carraízo would cross into the seguridad band (line at 39.70 m) in about 3 days, around September 9 — an arithmetic projection, not a prediction. Since the rotation began 28 days ago, the reservoir has gained 141 cm overall, sitting 0.44 m above the ajustes line at 38.94 m.

La Plata’s decline continues to ease, averaging 2.5 cm a day this week versus 9.3 cm a day the week before, though it’s also on a 3-morning streak lower, down 7 cm. With only 0.57 in of rain nearby this week, there’s been no sharp bounce like Carraízo’s. At this slower pace, the control line 4.02 m below would be about 161 days out — again, simple arithmetic from the current rate. Cidra has flipped to rising too, up 1.7 cm a day against a prior 1.3 cm-a-day drop, helped by 4.47 in of rain and single-morning gains of 7 cm and 4 cm after the wettest days. At this pace it would reach the observación line in about 4 days, around September 11.

What to watch

• Carraízo: whether the rise survives a dry week — this week’s gain came with 1.86 in of rain nearby.
• La Plata: whether the slowdown holds — a second week under 9.3 cm a day would say the rotation is doing its job.
• Cidra: whether the rise survives a dry week — this week’s gain came with 4.47 in of rain nearby.

The other rationing reservoir

Numbers from AAA’s Monitoreo Diario chart of 2026-09-06, read each morning for our reservoir board — where the levels, the bands, and the live rain gauges update daily. Rain figures are USGS gauges within 12 km of each reservoir (a proximity proxy, not a basin measurement). Day counts start 2026-08-08, when the metro rotation took effect. Straight-line dates are arithmetic, not forecasts. The analysis paragraphs are drafted by Claude from the computed figures and checked number-by-number against them before publishing.