Infrastructure

Tropics Watch: No Active Storms, but a 40% Chance of Development

Published Sep 23, 2026 · 787 Daily · Original analysis

As of September 23, the National Hurricane Center lists no active systems in the Atlantic basin.

The Atlantic is quiet this week. As of September 23, the National Hurricane Center has no active systems on the board, and nothing is currently tracking toward Puerto Rico. Forecasters are watching just one area of interest, far out in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic, with only a 40% chance of development over the next 7 days and an even lower 20% chance in the near term. That puts it well away from home turf and not something to lose sleep over right now.

We’re past the climatological peak of the season, which fell on September 10, but hurricane season is still very much underway, so it’s worth keeping an eye on updates rather than tuning out entirely. For now, there’s nothing brewing that points toward Puerto Rico, and calm conditions are the story of the week. As always, for the latest official forecasts and any changes to this outlook, check the National Hurricane Center and NWS San Juan directly.

most active weeks peak, Sep 10 this week Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Nov 30
The Atlantic season, June 1 to November 30. The shaded weeks are the statistical peak, mid-August to late October, as on the hurricane hub; the dashed line is the climatological peak of September 10. 68 days of the season remain. A calendar, not a forecast — no system on this week's list is placed on it.

The 7-day outlook

Source: National Hurricane Center 7-day Tropical Weather Outlook, September 23.
Outlook area48-hour chance7-day chanceCorridor
Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic20%40%watch

Live tracks, cones and the Puerto Rico prep checklist are on the hurricane hub; the weather page carries the daily tropics line. Official watches and warnings: the National Hurricane Center and NWS San Juan.

This is the 3rd Tropics Watch of the season (last week’s is here). Source: NHC CurrentStorms.json and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued Wed, 23 Sep 2026 05:07:01 +0000.