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Daily Water Watch: Carraízo at 40.65 m

Published Oct 7, 2026, 6:09 AM AST787daily · Original analysis

At a glance

  • Carraízo fell 4 cm to 40.65 m, in the Safe band (Seguridad) — 0.95 m above the Watch line (Observación)
  • La Plata fell 2 cm to 43.68 m, in the Adjustments band (Ajustes); at this week’s pace, about 53 days until it reaches the Control line
  • Carraízo: down 4 cm today; up an average of 3 cm a day this week; 2.43 in of rain over the watershed this week
  • Day 62 of the metro rotation, the San Juan area’s rationing schedule — interruptions paused since September 2, and AAA has not canceled it; the plan began August 7; levels from AAA’s 5:00 AM chart

Why this matters: The number that matters is the gap to the next band line: 0.95 m for Carraízo, 3.18 m for La Plata. Straight-line dates move every day — the daily check is the point.

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This morning’s 5:00 chart from the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (AAA) shows Carraízo at 40.65 meters — down 4 centimeters from yesterday. La Plata is at 43.68 meters — down 2 centimeters from yesterday.

Service today

Day 62 of the metro rotation, the San Juan area’s rationing schedule — interruptions paused since September 2, and AAA has not canceled it.

AAA’s Cedro Arriba plan in Naranjito is in effect: Zone C and Zone D take turns every 48 hours; Zone D has water until Thursday at 6:00 AM.

AAA has posted no plan change, open outage or water-quality notice in the last three days.

Every notice AAA posts is on the water page, in its own words.

Reservoirs

Carraízo: down 4 cm

Carraízo kept sliding. This morning’s chart puts it at 40.65 meters — down 4 centimeters from yesterday, in the Safe band (Seguridad). The next line on the chart — into the Watch band (Observación) — sits at 39.70 meters, 0.95 meters below this morning’s reading.

Adjustments Watch Safe 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0 39.5 40.0 40.5 41.0 Aug 9 Sep 7 Oct 7 Oct 3, 40.70 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, Safe Aug 9, 37.53 m, AdjustmentsAug 10, 37.48 m, −5 cm, AdjustmentsAug 11, 37.43 m, −5 cm, AdjustmentsAug 12, 37.53 m, +10 cm, AdjustmentsAug 13, 37.79 m, +26 cm, AdjustmentsAug 14, 37.86 m, +7 cm, AdjustmentsAug 15, 37.85 m, −1 cm, AdjustmentsAug 16, 37.82 m, −3 cm, AdjustmentsAug 17, 37.76 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsAug 18, 37.69 m, −7 cm, AdjustmentsAug 19, 37.63 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsAug 20, 37.57 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsAug 21, 37.52 m, −5 cm, AdjustmentsAug 22, 37.46 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsAug 23, 37.41 m, −5 cm, AdjustmentsAug 24, 37.34 m, −7 cm, AdjustmentsAug 25, 37.32 m, −2 cm, AdjustmentsAug 26, 37.30 m, −2 cm, AdjustmentsAug 27, 37.26 m, −4 cm, AdjustmentsAug 28, 37.20 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsAug 29, 37.14 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsAug 30, 37.07 m, −7 cm, AdjustmentsAug 31, 37.14 m, +7 cm, AdjustmentsSep 1, 37.20 m, +6 cm, AdjustmentsSep 2, 38.92 m, +172 cm, WatchSep 3, 39.11 m, +19 cm, WatchSep 4, 39.09 m, −2 cm, WatchSep 5, 39.01 m, −8 cm, WatchSep 6, 38.94 m, −7 cm, WatchSep 7, 38.87 m, −7 cm, WatchSep 8, 38.83 m, −4 cm, WatchSep 9, 39.02 m, +19 cm, WatchSep 10, 39.07 m, +5 cm, WatchSep 11, 39.20 m, +13 cm, WatchSep 12, 39.19 m, −1 cm, WatchSep 13, 39.14 m, −5 cm, WatchSep 14, 39.16 m, +2 cm, WatchSep 15, 39.25 m, +9 cm, WatchSep 16, 39.23 m, −2 cm, WatchSep 17, 40.06 m, +83 cm, SafeSep 18, 40.64 m, +58 cm, SafeSep 19, 40.80 m, +16 cm, SafeSep 20, 40.81 m, +1 cm, SafeSep 21, 40.79 m, −2 cm, SafeSep 22, 40.75 m, −4 cm, SafeSep 23, 40.70 m, −5 cm, SafeSep 24, 40.68 m, −2 cm, SafeSep 25, 40.68 m, +0 cm, SafeSep 26, 40.67 m, −1 cm, SafeSep 27, 40.63 m, −4 cm, SafeSep 28, 40.58 m, −5 cm, SafeSep 29, 40.53 m, −5 cm, SafeSep 30, 40.51 m, −2 cm, SafeOct 1, 40.47 m, −4 cm, SafeOct 2, 40.60 m, +13 cm, SafeOct 4, 40.74 m, +4 cm, SafeOct 5, 40.72 m, −2 cm, SafeOct 6, 40.69 m, −3 cm, SafeOct 7, 40.65 m, −4 cm, Safe 40.65 m Oct 1, 1.45 in of rainOct 2, 0.01 in of rainOct 3, 0.03 in of rainOct 4, 0.04 in of rainOct 5, 0.08 in of rainOct 6, 0.24 in of rainOct 7, 0.58 in of rain rain to 1.45 in
Carraízo since Aug 9, meters above sea level, shaded by AAA alert band, with daily rain from USGS gauges within 12 km. Data: AAA Monitoreo Diario; hollow points are the USGS gauge's 5 AM reading on days before AAA's record (from Aug 9).
Show the numbers
  • Oct 3, 40.70 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, Safe
  • Aug 9, 37.53 m, Adjustments
  • Aug 10, 37.48 m, −5 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 11, 37.43 m, −5 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 12, 37.53 m, +10 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 13, 37.79 m, +26 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 14, 37.86 m, +7 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 15, 37.85 m, −1 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 16, 37.82 m, −3 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 17, 37.76 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 18, 37.69 m, −7 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 19, 37.63 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 20, 37.57 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 21, 37.52 m, −5 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 22, 37.46 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 23, 37.41 m, −5 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 24, 37.34 m, −7 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 25, 37.32 m, −2 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 26, 37.30 m, −2 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 27, 37.26 m, −4 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 28, 37.20 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 29, 37.14 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 30, 37.07 m, −7 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 31, 37.14 m, +7 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 1, 37.20 m, +6 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 2, 38.92 m, +172 cm, Watch
  • Sep 3, 39.11 m, +19 cm, Watch
  • Sep 4, 39.09 m, −2 cm, Watch
  • Sep 5, 39.01 m, −8 cm, Watch
  • Sep 6, 38.94 m, −7 cm, Watch
  • Sep 7, 38.87 m, −7 cm, Watch
  • Sep 8, 38.83 m, −4 cm, Watch
  • Sep 9, 39.02 m, +19 cm, Watch
  • Sep 10, 39.07 m, +5 cm, Watch
  • Sep 11, 39.20 m, +13 cm, Watch
  • Sep 12, 39.19 m, −1 cm, Watch
  • Sep 13, 39.14 m, −5 cm, Watch
  • Sep 14, 39.16 m, +2 cm, Watch
  • Sep 15, 39.25 m, +9 cm, Watch
  • Sep 16, 39.23 m, −2 cm, Watch
  • Sep 17, 40.06 m, +83 cm, Safe
  • Sep 18, 40.64 m, +58 cm, Safe
  • Sep 19, 40.80 m, +16 cm, Safe
  • Sep 20, 40.81 m, +1 cm, Safe
  • Sep 21, 40.79 m, −2 cm, Safe
  • Sep 22, 40.75 m, −4 cm, Safe
  • Sep 23, 40.70 m, −5 cm, Safe
  • Sep 24, 40.68 m, −2 cm, Safe
  • Sep 25, 40.68 m, +0 cm, Safe
  • Sep 26, 40.67 m, −1 cm, Safe
  • Sep 27, 40.63 m, −4 cm, Safe
  • Sep 28, 40.58 m, −5 cm, Safe
  • Sep 29, 40.53 m, −5 cm, Safe
  • Sep 30, 40.51 m, −2 cm, Safe
  • Oct 1, 40.47 m, −4 cm, Safe
  • Oct 2, 40.60 m, +13 cm, Safe
  • Oct 4, 40.74 m, +4 cm, Safe
  • Oct 5, 40.72 m, −2 cm, Safe
  • Oct 6, 40.69 m, −3 cm, Safe
  • Oct 7, 40.65 m, −4 cm, Safe
  • Oct 1, 1.45 in of rain
  • Oct 2, 0.01 in of rain
  • Oct 3, 0.03 in of rain
  • Oct 4, 0.04 in of rain
  • Oct 5, 0.08 in of rain
  • Oct 6, 0.24 in of rain
  • Oct 7, 0.58 in of rain

Carraízo, October 7

Level today
40.65 mSafe band
Change since yesterday
−4 cm
To the Watch line
0.95 mline at 39.70 m
At this week's pace
rising

La Plata: down 2 cm

La Plata kept sliding. This morning’s chart puts it at 43.68 meters — down 2 centimeters from yesterday, in the Adjustments band (Ajustes). The next line on the chart — into the Control band — sits at 40.50 meters, 3.18 meters below this morning’s reading. At this week’s pace that is about 53 days away (straight-line date: November 29 — a projection, not a forecast; one wet afternoon moves it).

If your water comes from La Plata — Dorado, Guaynabo, Naranjito, Toa Alta, Toa Baja, Vega Alta, Bayamón, Cataño, Corozal — this is the reservoir to watch; AAA lists 130,828 client accounts on it.

Adjustments Watch Safe 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 Aug 9 Sep 7 Oct 7 Oct 3, 43.87 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, Adjustments Aug 9, 46.38 m, WatchAug 10, 46.29 m, −9 cm, WatchAug 11, 46.20 m, −9 cm, WatchAug 12, 46.16 m, −4 cm, WatchAug 13, 46.11 m, −5 cm, WatchAug 14, 46.02 m, −9 cm, WatchAug 15, 45.95 m, −7 cm, WatchAug 16, 45.88 m, −7 cm, WatchAug 17, 45.80 m, −8 cm, WatchAug 18, 45.71 m, −9 cm, WatchAug 19, 45.62 m, −9 cm, WatchAug 20, 45.55 m, −7 cm, WatchAug 21, 45.49 m, −6 cm, WatchAug 22, 45.42 m, −7 cm, WatchAug 23, 45.35 m, −7 cm, WatchAug 24, 45.28 m, −7 cm, WatchAug 25, 45.23 m, −5 cm, WatchAug 26, 45.15 m, −8 cm, WatchAug 27, 45.04 m, −11 cm, WatchAug 28, 44.93 m, −11 cm, WatchAug 29, 44.83 m, −10 cm, AdjustmentsAug 30, 44.72 m, −11 cm, AdjustmentsAug 31, 44.67 m, −5 cm, AdjustmentsSep 1, 44.59 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsSep 2, 44.59 m, +0 cm, AdjustmentsSep 3, 44.59 m, +0 cm, AdjustmentsSep 4, 44.57 m, −2 cm, AdjustmentsSep 5, 44.54 m, −3 cm, AdjustmentsSep 6, 44.52 m, −2 cm, AdjustmentsSep 7, 44.46 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsSep 8, 44.40 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsSep 9, 44.32 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsSep 10, 44.24 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsSep 11, 44.14 m, −10 cm, AdjustmentsSep 12, 44.25 m, +11 cm, AdjustmentsSep 13, 44.26 m, +1 cm, AdjustmentsSep 14, 44.40 m, +14 cm, AdjustmentsSep 15, 44.46 m, +6 cm, AdjustmentsSep 16, 44.40 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsSep 17, 44.36 m, −4 cm, AdjustmentsSep 18, 44.40 m, +4 cm, AdjustmentsSep 19, 44.61 m, +21 cm, AdjustmentsSep 20, 44.66 m, +5 cm, AdjustmentsSep 21, 44.70 m, +4 cm, AdjustmentsSep 22, 44.72 m, +2 cm, AdjustmentsSep 23, 44.68 m, −4 cm, AdjustmentsSep 24, 44.63 m, −5 cm, AdjustmentsSep 25, 44.56 m, −7 cm, AdjustmentsSep 26, 44.47 m, −9 cm, AdjustmentsSep 27, 44.39 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsSep 28, 44.31 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsSep 29, 44.22 m, −9 cm, AdjustmentsSep 30, 44.13 m, −9 cm, AdjustmentsOct 1, 44.04 m, −9 cm, AdjustmentsOct 2, 43.96 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsOct 4, 43.79 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsOct 5, 43.71 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsOct 6, 43.70 m, −1 cm, AdjustmentsOct 7, 43.68 m, −2 cm, Adjustments 43.68 m at ~6 cm/day Oct 1, 0.02 in of rainOct 2, 0.01 in of rainOct 3, 0.01 in of rainOct 4, 0.84 in of rainOct 5, 0.02 in of rainOct 6, 0.19 in of rainOct 7, 0.22 in of rain rain to 0.84 in
La Plata since Aug 9, meters above sea level, shaded by AAA alert band, with daily rain from USGS gauges within 12 km. Data: AAA Monitoreo Diario; hollow points are the USGS gauge's 5 AM reading on days before AAA's record (from Aug 9).
Show the numbers
  • Oct 3, 43.87 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, Adjustments
  • Aug 9, 46.38 m, Watch
  • Aug 10, 46.29 m, −9 cm, Watch
  • Aug 11, 46.20 m, −9 cm, Watch
  • Aug 12, 46.16 m, −4 cm, Watch
  • Aug 13, 46.11 m, −5 cm, Watch
  • Aug 14, 46.02 m, −9 cm, Watch
  • Aug 15, 45.95 m, −7 cm, Watch
  • Aug 16, 45.88 m, −7 cm, Watch
  • Aug 17, 45.80 m, −8 cm, Watch
  • Aug 18, 45.71 m, −9 cm, Watch
  • Aug 19, 45.62 m, −9 cm, Watch
  • Aug 20, 45.55 m, −7 cm, Watch
  • Aug 21, 45.49 m, −6 cm, Watch
  • Aug 22, 45.42 m, −7 cm, Watch
  • Aug 23, 45.35 m, −7 cm, Watch
  • Aug 24, 45.28 m, −7 cm, Watch
  • Aug 25, 45.23 m, −5 cm, Watch
  • Aug 26, 45.15 m, −8 cm, Watch
  • Aug 27, 45.04 m, −11 cm, Watch
  • Aug 28, 44.93 m, −11 cm, Watch
  • Aug 29, 44.83 m, −10 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 30, 44.72 m, −11 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 31, 44.67 m, −5 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 1, 44.59 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 2, 44.59 m, +0 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 3, 44.59 m, +0 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 4, 44.57 m, −2 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 5, 44.54 m, −3 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 6, 44.52 m, −2 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 7, 44.46 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 8, 44.40 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 9, 44.32 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 10, 44.24 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 11, 44.14 m, −10 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 12, 44.25 m, +11 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 13, 44.26 m, +1 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 14, 44.40 m, +14 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 15, 44.46 m, +6 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 16, 44.40 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 17, 44.36 m, −4 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 18, 44.40 m, +4 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 19, 44.61 m, +21 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 20, 44.66 m, +5 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 21, 44.70 m, +4 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 22, 44.72 m, +2 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 23, 44.68 m, −4 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 24, 44.63 m, −5 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 25, 44.56 m, −7 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 26, 44.47 m, −9 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 27, 44.39 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 28, 44.31 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 29, 44.22 m, −9 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 30, 44.13 m, −9 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 1, 44.04 m, −9 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 2, 43.96 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 4, 43.79 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 5, 43.71 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 6, 43.70 m, −1 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 7, 43.68 m, −2 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 1, 0.02 in of rain
  • Oct 2, 0.01 in of rain
  • Oct 3, 0.01 in of rain
  • Oct 4, 0.84 in of rain
  • Oct 5, 0.02 in of rain
  • Oct 6, 0.19 in of rain
  • Oct 7, 0.22 in of rain

La Plata, October 7

Level today
43.68 mAdjustments band
Change since yesterday
−2 cm
To the Control line
3.18 mline at 40.50 m
At this week's pace
about 53 daysstraight-line date: November 29

The other rationing reservoir

Cidra, October 7

Level today
400.54 mWatch band
Change since yesterday
0 cm
To the Adjustments line
0.31 mline at 400.23 m
At this week's pace
holding

Outlook

What the numbers say

Carraízo is the week’s one real reversal. Its seven-day average is now a gain of 3 cm a day, after a 2.8 cm-a-day decline the week before, and the October 1 downpour was followed by a 13 cm jump the next morning. The last three mornings have each been lower, though, so the rise has stalled for now. If this week’s pace held, it would climb back into the Spilling band (Desborde) in about 10 days, around October 17. That is arithmetic, not a forecast, and the recent slip shows how easily it can change.

La Plata tells a different story: still falling, but more slowly than before, at 6 cm a day versus 8.3 the week before. That is 15 straight mornings lower, and the rain this week did not turn it around. The morning after its wettest day it still dropped 8 cm. At the current pace the Control line is about 53 days away, around November 29, again arithmetic only. Cidra is flat despite 3.9 in of rain at nearby gauges, sitting 0.31 m above the Adjustments line with no pace to project.

What to watch

  • Carraízo: whether the rise survives a dry week — this week’s gain came with 2.43 in of rain nearby.
  • La Plata: whether the slowdown holds — a second week under 8.3 cm a day would show the decline easing.
  • Río Grande, Canóvanas and Loíza: whether AAA says in public that the east-side rationing is over, and posts that the Canóvanas filtration plant is back in operation.
  • Naranjito: AAA’s Cedro Arriba plan — its calendar runs through October 31; whether AAA extends it, changes the phase or ends it.

Lake levels

The USGS gauge at Carraízo read 40.66 meters at 5:45 AM. The USGS gauge at La Plata read 43.68 meters at 5:45 AM. The USGS gauge at Cidra read 400.57 meters at 5:45 AM.

The gauges report every quarter hour and their readings are provisional; the bands are measured on AAA’s 5:00 chart.

How we read the data

This is the 53rd Daily Water Watch (yesterday’s is here). The levels update every morning on the water page.

Levels: AAA’s daily reservoir chart, October 7. Rain: USGS gauges within 12 km of each reservoir. Day counts start August 7, when the metro rotation took effect. Straight-line dates are arithmetic, not forecasts. How we report.

In context — 787daily, from public data

About this analysis
Cite this

Source: 787daily, “Daily Water Watch: Carraízo at 40.65 m”, Oct 7, 2026 — https://787daily.com/news/2026-10-07-daily-water-watch-carraizo-at-40-65-m/

Numbers from
AAA's 5 AM reservoir chart, validated daily
Use our data
Today (JSON) · Reservoir history (CSV).Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0: credit 787daily.com with a link.

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