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Daily Water Watch: AAA Changes the Rationing Plan, Oct 2

Published Oct 2, 2026, 9:37 AM AST· Updated Oct 7, 2026787daily · Original analysis

At a glance

  • Carraízo rose 13 cm to 40.60 m, in the Safe band (Seguridad) — 0.90 m above the Watch line
  • La Plata fell 8 cm to 43.96 m, in the Adjustments band (Ajustes), about 41 days above the Control line at this week’s pace
  • Carraízo is up 13 cm today after a week averaging −1.2 cm a day; 2.27 in of rain over the watershed this week
  • Day 57 of the metro rotation, the San Juan area’s rationing schedule — interruptions paused since September 2, and AAA has not canceled it; the plan began Aug 7; levels from AAA’s 5:00 AM chart

Why this matters: The number that matters is the gap to the next band line: 0.90 m for Carraízo, 3.46 m for La Plata. Straight-line dates move every day — the daily check is the point.

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AAA posted a change to the rationing plan, and at 12:14 PM started a separate one in Naranjito for the Cedro Arriba plant; both are below, under Service today. This morning’s 5:00 chart from the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority shows Carraízo at 40.60 meters — up 13 centimeters from yesterday.

Updates

  • 12:14 PM: AAA started a rotation plan in Naranjito (Cedro Arriba plant), separate from the metro plan: AAA’s notice.

Service today

Day 57 of the metro rotation, the San Juan area’s rationing schedule — interruptions paused since September 2, and AAA has not canceled it.

AAA’s Cedro Arriba plan in Naranjito is in effect: Zone C and Zone D take turns every 48 hours; Zone D has water until Sunday at 6:00 AM.

Most important now

Every notice AAA posts is on the water page, in its own words.

Reservoirs

Carraízo: a rise

Carraízo gained ground overnight. This morning’s chart puts it at 40.60 meters — up 13 centimeters from yesterday, in the Safe band (Seguridad). The next line on the chart — into the Watch band (Observación) — sits at 39.70 meters, 0.90 meters below this morning’s reading.

ajustes observación seguridad 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0 39.5 40.0 40.5 41.0 Aug 4 Sep 2 Oct 2 Aug 4, 37.73 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, ajustesAug 5, 37.71 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, ajustesAug 6, 37.68 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, ajustesAug 8, 37.58 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, ajustes Aug 7, 37.64 m, −4 cm, ajustesAug 9, 37.53 m, −5 cm, ajustesAug 10, 37.48 m, −5 cm, ajustesAug 11, 37.43 m, −5 cm, ajustesAug 12, 37.53 m, +10 cm, ajustesAug 13, 37.79 m, +26 cm, ajustesAug 14, 37.86 m, +7 cm, ajustesAug 15, 37.85 m, −1 cm, ajustesAug 16, 37.82 m, −3 cm, ajustesAug 17, 37.76 m, −6 cm, ajustesAug 18, 37.69 m, −7 cm, ajustesAug 19, 37.63 m, −6 cm, ajustesAug 20, 37.57 m, −6 cm, ajustesAug 21, 37.52 m, −5 cm, ajustesAug 22, 37.46 m, −6 cm, ajustesAug 23, 37.41 m, −5 cm, ajustesAug 24, 37.34 m, −7 cm, ajustesAug 25, 37.32 m, −2 cm, ajustesAug 26, 37.30 m, −2 cm, ajustesAug 27, 37.26 m, −4 cm, ajustesAug 28, 37.20 m, −6 cm, ajustesAug 29, 37.14 m, −6 cm, ajustesAug 30, 37.07 m, −7 cm, ajustesAug 31, 37.14 m, +7 cm, ajustesSep 1, 37.20 m, +6 cm, ajustesSep 2, 38.92 m, +172 cm, observaciónSep 3, 39.11 m, +19 cm, observaciónSep 4, 39.09 m, −2 cm, observaciónSep 5, 39.01 m, −8 cm, observaciónSep 6, 38.94 m, −7 cm, observaciónSep 7, 38.87 m, −7 cm, observaciónSep 8, 38.83 m, −4 cm, observaciónSep 9, 39.02 m, +19 cm, observaciónSep 10, 39.07 m, +5 cm, observaciónSep 11, 39.20 m, +13 cm, observaciónSep 12, 39.19 m, −1 cm, observaciónSep 13, 39.14 m, −5 cm, observaciónSep 14, 39.16 m, +2 cm, observaciónSep 15, 39.25 m, +9 cm, observaciónSep 16, 39.23 m, −2 cm, observaciónSep 17, 40.06 m, +83 cm, seguridadSep 18, 40.64 m, +58 cm, seguridadSep 19, 40.80 m, +16 cm, seguridadSep 20, 40.81 m, +1 cm, seguridadSep 21, 40.79 m, −2 cm, seguridadSep 22, 40.75 m, −4 cm, seguridadSep 23, 40.70 m, −5 cm, seguridadSep 24, 40.68 m, −2 cm, seguridadSep 25, 40.68 m, +0 cm, seguridadSep 26, 40.67 m, −1 cm, seguridadSep 27, 40.63 m, −4 cm, seguridadSep 28, 40.58 m, −5 cm, seguridadSep 29, 40.53 m, −5 cm, seguridadSep 30, 40.51 m, −2 cm, seguridadOct 1, 40.47 m, −4 cm, seguridadOct 2, 40.60 m, +13 cm, seguridad 40.60 m Sep 29, 0.28 in of rainSep 30, 0.53 in of rainOct 1, 1.45 in of rainOct 2, 0.01 in of rain rain to 1.45 in
Carraízo since Aug 4, meters above sea level, shaded by AAA alert band, with daily rain from USGS gauges within 12 km. Data: AAA Monitoreo Diario; hollow points are the USGS gauge's 5 AM reading on days before AAA's record (from Aug 7).

Carraízo, October 2

Level today
40.60 mband: seguridad
Change since yesterday
+13 cm
To the Watch line
0.90 mline at 39.70 m
At the current pace
rising

La Plata: down 8 cm

La Plata kept sliding. This morning’s chart puts it at 43.96 meters — down 8 centimeters from yesterday, in the Adjustments band (Ajustes). The next line on the chart — into the Control band — sits at 40.50 meters, 3.46 meters below this morning’s reading. At this week’s pace that is about 41 days away (straight-line date: Nov 12 — a projection, not a forecast; one wet afternoon moves it).

If your water comes from La Plata — Dorado, Guaynabo, Naranjito, Toa Alta, Toa Baja, Vega Alta, Bayamón, Cataño, Corozal — this is the reservoir to watch; AAA lists 130,828 client accounts on it.

ajustes observación seguridad 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 Aug 4 Sep 2 Oct 2 Aug 4, 46.79 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, observaciónAug 5, 46.72 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, observaciónAug 6, 46.63 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, observaciónAug 8, 46.46 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, observación Aug 7, 46.55 m, −8 cm, observaciónAug 9, 46.38 m, −8 cm, observaciónAug 10, 46.29 m, −9 cm, observaciónAug 11, 46.20 m, −9 cm, observaciónAug 12, 46.16 m, −4 cm, observaciónAug 13, 46.11 m, −5 cm, observaciónAug 14, 46.02 m, −9 cm, observaciónAug 15, 45.95 m, −7 cm, observaciónAug 16, 45.88 m, −7 cm, observaciónAug 17, 45.80 m, −8 cm, observaciónAug 18, 45.71 m, −9 cm, observaciónAug 19, 45.62 m, −9 cm, observaciónAug 20, 45.55 m, −7 cm, observaciónAug 21, 45.49 m, −6 cm, observaciónAug 22, 45.42 m, −7 cm, observaciónAug 23, 45.35 m, −7 cm, observaciónAug 24, 45.28 m, −7 cm, observaciónAug 25, 45.23 m, −5 cm, observaciónAug 26, 45.15 m, −8 cm, observaciónAug 27, 45.04 m, −11 cm, observaciónAug 28, 44.93 m, −11 cm, observaciónAug 29, 44.83 m, −10 cm, ajustesAug 30, 44.72 m, −11 cm, ajustesAug 31, 44.67 m, −5 cm, ajustesSep 1, 44.59 m, −8 cm, ajustesSep 2, 44.59 m, +0 cm, ajustesSep 3, 44.59 m, +0 cm, ajustesSep 4, 44.57 m, −2 cm, ajustesSep 5, 44.54 m, −3 cm, ajustesSep 6, 44.52 m, −2 cm, ajustesSep 7, 44.46 m, −6 cm, ajustesSep 8, 44.40 m, −6 cm, ajustesSep 9, 44.32 m, −8 cm, ajustesSep 10, 44.24 m, −8 cm, ajustesSep 11, 44.14 m, −10 cm, ajustesSep 12, 44.25 m, +11 cm, ajustesSep 13, 44.26 m, +1 cm, ajustesSep 14, 44.40 m, +14 cm, ajustesSep 15, 44.46 m, +6 cm, ajustesSep 16, 44.40 m, −6 cm, ajustesSep 17, 44.36 m, −4 cm, ajustesSep 18, 44.40 m, +4 cm, ajustesSep 19, 44.61 m, +21 cm, ajustesSep 20, 44.66 m, +5 cm, ajustesSep 21, 44.70 m, +4 cm, ajustesSep 22, 44.72 m, +2 cm, ajustesSep 23, 44.68 m, −4 cm, ajustesSep 24, 44.63 m, −5 cm, ajustesSep 25, 44.56 m, −7 cm, ajustesSep 26, 44.47 m, −9 cm, ajustesSep 27, 44.39 m, −8 cm, ajustesSep 28, 44.31 m, −8 cm, ajustesSep 29, 44.22 m, −9 cm, ajustesSep 30, 44.13 m, −9 cm, ajustesOct 1, 44.04 m, −9 cm, ajustesOct 2, 43.96 m, −8 cm, ajustes 43.96 m at ~8 cm/day Sep 26, 0.2 in of rainSep 27, 0.06 in of rainSep 29, 0.22 in of rainSep 30, 0.5 in of rainOct 1, 0.02 in of rainOct 2, 0.01 in of rain rain to 0.50 in
La Plata since Aug 4, meters above sea level, shaded by AAA alert band, with daily rain from USGS gauges within 12 km. Data: AAA Monitoreo Diario; hollow points are the USGS gauge's 5 AM reading on days before AAA's record (from Aug 7).

La Plata, October 2

Level today
43.96 mband: ajustes
Change since yesterday
-8 cm
To the Control line
3.46 mline at 40.50 m
At the current pace
about 41 daysstraight-line date: Nov 12

The other rationing reservoir

Cidra, October 2

Level today
400.54 mband: observación
Change since yesterday
0 cm
To the Adjustments line
0.31 mline at 400.23 m
At the current pace
holding

Outlook

What the numbers say

Over the past week Carraízo has been falling an average of 1.2 cm a day, down from 2 cm a day the week before — the decline is slowing. Since the rotation began 56 days ago it has gained 296 cm, from 37.64 m. It sits 0.90 m above the Watch line (the next band down), at 40.60 m in the Safe band. At this week’s pace the Watch line (39.70 m) is about 75 days away — around December 16; arithmetic, not a forecast. Nearby USGS gauges recorded 2.27 in of rain this week, most of it October 1 (1.45 in). After the 0.53 in on September 30, the next morning’s reading was -4 cm. After the 1.45 in on October 1, the next morning’s reading was +13 cm.

Over the past week La Plata has been falling an average of 8.5 cm a day, up from 0.8 cm a day the week before — the decline is speeding up. That is 10 straight mornings lower, -76 cm in all. Since August 8 it has lost 250 cm, from 46.46 m. It sits 3.46 m above the Control line (the next band down), at 43.96 m in the Adjustments band. At this week’s pace the Control line (40.50 m) is about 41 days away — around November 12; arithmetic, not a forecast. Nearby USGS gauges recorded 1.01 in of rain this week; the wettest day was September 30 (0.5 in). After the 0.5 in on September 30, the next morning’s reading was -9 cm.

Over the past week Cidra has been rising an average of 0.2 cm a day. Since August 8 it has gained 39 cm, from 400.15 m. It sits 0.31 m above the Adjustments line (the next band down), at 400.54 m in the Watch band. The week’s net movement is inside chart-reading noise — effectively flat. Nearby USGS gauges recorded 2.26 in of rain this week; the wettest day was October 1 (0.89 in). After the 0.68 in on September 29, the next morning’s reading was +2 cm. After the 0.53 in on September 30, the next morning’s reading was +1 cm.

What to watch

  • Carraízo: whether the slowdown holds — a second week under 2 cm a day would say the rotation is doing its job.
  • Río Grande, Canóvanas and Loíza: whether AAA says in public that the east-side rationing is over, and posts that the Canóvanas filtration plant is back in operation.

Drought map

The US Drought Monitor map dated September 29 puts 51 of 78 municipios in at least moderate drought (D1). The worst tier, D3 extreme drought, covers 12 of them, led by Guánica, Santa Isabel and Lajas. Since the map of September 22, no municipio worsened and 21 improved, while 57 stayed in the same category. The biggest move: Caguas (severe drought to moderate drought).

September 22 18 of 78 municipios, no drought18 7 of 78 municipios, abnormally dry (D0)7 8 of 78 municipios, moderate (D1)8 33 of 78 municipios, severe (D2)33 12 of 78 municipios, extreme (D3)12 September 29 21 of 78 municipios, no drought21 6 of 78 municipios, abnormally dry (D0)6 22 of 78 municipios, moderate (D1)22 17 of 78 municipios, severe (D2)17 12 of 78 municipios, extreme (D3)12 no drought abnormally dry (D0) moderate (D1) severe (D2) extreme (D3)
Puerto Rico's 78 municipios by drought category, the map of September 22 above this one. Colours are the US Drought Monitor's own, matching the map on the water page. Source: US Drought Monitor.

Where the map is worst

Source: US Drought Monitor, map dated Sep 29.
MunicipioCategoryShare of area (Share of the municipio's area at this category or worse)
GuánicaD3 extreme drought100%
Santa IsabelD3 extreme drought95.7%
LajasD3 extreme drought90%
GuayanillaD3 extreme drought57.1%
Cabo RojoD3 extreme drought40.6%
Juana DíazD3 extreme drought40.6%
PonceD3 extreme drought39.2%
PeñuelasD3 extreme drought31.3%

The 8 municipios with the largest share of their area at D3, of 12 in that tier.

Since the map of September 22

Source: US Drought Monitor, map dated Sep 29 against the map of September 22.
MunicipioLast map (Worst category on the map of September 22)This map (Worst category on this map)
CaguasD2 severe droughtD1 moderate drought
CatañoD2 severe droughtD1 moderate drought
CeibaD2 severe droughtD1 moderate drought
CorozalD2 severe droughtD1 moderate drought
FajardoD2 severe droughtD1 moderate drought
GuaynaboD2 severe droughtD1 moderate drought
GuraboD2 severe droughtD1 moderate drought
HumacaoD2 severe droughtD1 moderate drought
JuncosD2 severe droughtD1 moderate drought
Las PiedrasD2 severe droughtD1 moderate drought
NaguaboD2 severe droughtD1 moderate drought
Río GrandeD2 severe droughtD1 moderate drought
San GermánD2 severe droughtD1 moderate drought
San JuanD2 severe droughtD1 moderate drought
San LorenzoD2 severe droughtD1 moderate drought
Trujillo AltoD2 severe droughtD1 moderate drought
HormiguerosD1 moderate droughtD0 abnormally dry
Vega AltaD1 moderate droughtD0 abnormally dry
MaricaoD0 abnormally dryNo drought
MorovisD0 abnormally dryNo drought
Vega BajaD0 abnormally dryNo drought

USDM categories are a weekly expert synthesis of drought indicators, not a rainfall total; municipio shares are area-weighted. The full map, colored by category, is on the water page.

Lake levels

The USGS gauge at Carraízo read 40.65 meters at 8:45 AM. The USGS gauge at La Plata read 43.94 meters at 8:45 AM. The USGS gauge at Cidra read 400.54 meters at 8:45 AM.

The gauges report every quarter hour and their readings are provisional; the bands are measured on AAA’s 5:00 chart.

Elsewhere today

How we read the data

This is the 50th Daily Water Watch (yesterday’s is here). The levels update every morning on the water page.

Levels: AAA’s daily reservoir chart, Oct 2. Rain: USGS gauges within 12 km of each reservoir. Day counts start Aug 7, when the metro rotation took effect. Straight-line dates are arithmetic, not forecasts. How we report.

Corrected October 7: an earlier version measured Carraízo’s gain since the rotation from August 8 (302 cm over 55 days); the rotation began August 7, and the gain is 296 cm over 56 days. It also gave La Plata two different dates for the Control line; at this week’s pace it is about 41 days away, around November 12. And it said most of the week’s rain at La Plata and Cidra fell on one day; no single day carried most of it.

In context

About this analysisOriginal 787daily analysis of AAA's 5 AM reservoir chart, validated daily · Report an error
Cite this

Source: 787daily, “Daily Water Watch: AAA Changes the Rationing Plan, Oct 2”, Oct 2, 2026, https://787daily.com/news/2026-10-02-daily-water-watch-aaa-changes-the-rationing-plan/

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AAA's 5 AM reservoir chart, validated daily
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Each morning's reading of the 19 AAA reservoirs: today's level, the day-over-day change, the alert band and the pace to the next line, with metro rationing status.

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