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Daily Water Watch, Oct 22: Carraízo at 40.85 m

Published Oct 22, 2026, 6:06 AM AST787daily · Original analysis

At a glance

  • Carraízo fell 3 cm to 40.85 m, in the Safe band (Seguridad), 1.15 m above the Watch line (Observación)
  • La Plata fell 9 cm to 42.97 m, in the Adjustments band (Ajustes); at this week’s pace, about 35 days until it reaches the Control line
  • Carraízo is flat, averaging 0.3 cm a day over the past week; 1.75 in of rain over the watershed this week
  • Day 77 of the metro rotation, the San Juan area’s rationing schedule, with interruptions paused since September 2, and the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (AAA) has not canceled it; the plan began August 7; levels from the chart AAA publishes at 5:00 AM

Why this matters: The number that matters is the gap to the next band line: 1.15 m for Carraízo, 2.47 m for La Plata. Straight-line dates move every day; the daily check is the point.

Our coverage

San Juan's rationing plan, zones and calendar

This morning’s 5:00 chart from AAA shows Carraízo at 40.85 meters, down 3 centimeters from yesterday. La Plata is at 42.97 meters, down 9 centimeters from yesterday.

Service today

Day 77 of the metro rotation, the San Juan area’s rationing schedule, with interruptions paused since September 2, and AAA has not canceled it.

AAA’s Cedro Arriba plan in Naranjito is in effect: Zone C and Zone D take turns every 48 hours; Zone D has water until Saturday at 6:00 AM.

AAA has posted no plan change, open outage or water-quality notice in the last three days.

Every notice AAA posts is on the water page, in its own words.

Reservoirs

Carraízo: down 3 cm

Carraízo slipped overnight. This morning’s chart puts it at 40.85 meters, down 3 centimeters from yesterday, in the Safe band (Seguridad). The next line on the chart, into the Watch band (Observación), sits at 39.70 meters, 1.15 meters below this morning’s reading.

Adjustments Watch Safe 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0 39.5 40.0 40.5 41.0 Aug 24 Sep 22 Oct 22 Oct 3, 40.70 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, Safe Aug 24, 37.34 m, AdjustmentsAug 25, 37.32 m, −2 cm, AdjustmentsAug 26, 37.30 m, −2 cm, AdjustmentsAug 27, 37.26 m, −4 cm, AdjustmentsAug 28, 37.20 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsAug 29, 37.14 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsAug 30, 37.07 m, −7 cm, AdjustmentsAug 31, 37.14 m, +7 cm, AdjustmentsSep 1, 37.20 m, +6 cm, AdjustmentsSep 2, 38.92 m, +172 cm, WatchSep 3, 39.11 m, +19 cm, WatchSep 4, 39.09 m, −2 cm, WatchSep 5, 39.01 m, −8 cm, WatchSep 6, 38.94 m, −7 cm, WatchSep 7, 38.87 m, −7 cm, WatchSep 8, 38.83 m, −4 cm, WatchSep 9, 39.02 m, +19 cm, WatchSep 10, 39.07 m, +5 cm, WatchSep 11, 39.20 m, +13 cm, WatchSep 12, 39.19 m, −1 cm, WatchSep 13, 39.14 m, −5 cm, WatchSep 14, 39.16 m, +2 cm, WatchSep 15, 39.25 m, +9 cm, WatchSep 16, 39.23 m, −2 cm, WatchSep 17, 40.06 m, +83 cm, SafeSep 18, 40.64 m, +58 cm, SafeSep 19, 40.80 m, +16 cm, SafeSep 20, 40.81 m, +1 cm, SafeSep 21, 40.79 m, −2 cm, SafeSep 22, 40.75 m, −4 cm, SafeSep 23, 40.70 m, −5 cm, SafeSep 24, 40.68 m, −2 cm, SafeSep 25, 40.68 m, +0 cm, SafeSep 26, 40.67 m, −1 cm, SafeSep 27, 40.63 m, −4 cm, SafeSep 28, 40.58 m, −5 cm, SafeSep 29, 40.53 m, −5 cm, SafeSep 30, 40.51 m, −2 cm, SafeOct 1, 40.47 m, −4 cm, SafeOct 2, 40.60 m, +13 cm, SafeOct 4, 40.74 m, +4 cm, SafeOct 5, 40.72 m, −2 cm, SafeOct 6, 40.69 m, −3 cm, SafeOct 7, 40.65 m, −4 cm, SafeOct 8, 40.88 m, +23 cm, SafeOct 9, 40.94 m, +6 cm, SafeOct 10, 40.91 m, −3 cm, SafeOct 11, 40.96 m, +5 cm, SpillingOct 12, 40.86 m, −10 cm, SafeOct 13, 40.90 m, +4 cm, SafeOct 14, 40.94 m, +4 cm, SafeOct 15, 40.85 m, −9 cm, SafeOct 16, 40.87 m, +2 cm, SafeOct 17, 40.85 m, −2 cm, SafeOct 18, 40.85 m, +0 cm, SafeOct 19, 40.87 m, +2 cm, SafeOct 20, 40.86 m, −1 cm, SafeOct 21, 40.88 m, +2 cm, SafeOct 22, 40.85 m, −3 cm, Safe 40.85 m Oct 16, 0.01 in of rainOct 17, 0.2 in of rainOct 18, 0.7 in of rainOct 19, 0.07 in of rainOct 20, 0.77 in of rain rain to 0.77 in
Carraízo since Aug 24, meters above sea level, shaded by AAA alert band, with daily rain from gauges the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) runs within 12 km. Data: AAA Monitoreo Diario; hollow points are the USGS gauge's 5 AM reading on mornings AAA's chart has none (AAA's own record here starts Aug 24).
Show the numbers
  • Aug 24, 37.34 m, Adjustments
  • Aug 25, 37.32 m, −2 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 26, 37.30 m, −2 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 27, 37.26 m, −4 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 28, 37.20 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 29, 37.14 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 30, 37.07 m, −7 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 31, 37.14 m, +7 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 1, 37.20 m, +6 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 2, 38.92 m, +172 cm, Watch
  • Sep 3, 39.11 m, +19 cm, Watch
  • Sep 4, 39.09 m, −2 cm, Watch
  • Sep 5, 39.01 m, −8 cm, Watch
  • Sep 6, 38.94 m, −7 cm, Watch
  • Sep 7, 38.87 m, −7 cm, Watch
  • Sep 8, 38.83 m, −4 cm, Watch
  • Sep 9, 39.02 m, +19 cm, Watch
  • Sep 10, 39.07 m, +5 cm, Watch
  • Sep 11, 39.20 m, +13 cm, Watch
  • Sep 12, 39.19 m, −1 cm, Watch
  • Sep 13, 39.14 m, −5 cm, Watch
  • Sep 14, 39.16 m, +2 cm, Watch
  • Sep 15, 39.25 m, +9 cm, Watch
  • Sep 16, 39.23 m, −2 cm, Watch
  • Sep 17, 40.06 m, +83 cm, Safe
  • Sep 18, 40.64 m, +58 cm, Safe
  • Sep 19, 40.80 m, +16 cm, Safe
  • Sep 20, 40.81 m, +1 cm, Safe
  • Sep 21, 40.79 m, −2 cm, Safe
  • Sep 22, 40.75 m, −4 cm, Safe
  • Sep 23, 40.70 m, −5 cm, Safe
  • Sep 24, 40.68 m, −2 cm, Safe
  • Sep 25, 40.68 m, +0 cm, Safe
  • Sep 26, 40.67 m, −1 cm, Safe
  • Sep 27, 40.63 m, −4 cm, Safe
  • Sep 28, 40.58 m, −5 cm, Safe
  • Sep 29, 40.53 m, −5 cm, Safe
  • Sep 30, 40.51 m, −2 cm, Safe
  • Oct 1, 40.47 m, −4 cm, Safe
  • Oct 2, 40.60 m, +13 cm, Safe
  • Oct 3, 40.70 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, Safe
  • Oct 4, 40.74 m, +4 cm, Safe
  • Oct 5, 40.72 m, −2 cm, Safe
  • Oct 6, 40.69 m, −3 cm, Safe
  • Oct 7, 40.65 m, −4 cm, Safe
  • Oct 8, 40.88 m, +23 cm, Safe
  • Oct 9, 40.94 m, +6 cm, Safe
  • Oct 10, 40.91 m, −3 cm, Safe
  • Oct 11, 40.96 m, +5 cm, Spilling
  • Oct 12, 40.86 m, −10 cm, Safe
  • Oct 13, 40.90 m, +4 cm, Safe
  • Oct 14, 40.94 m, +4 cm, Safe
  • Oct 15, 40.85 m, −9 cm, Safe
  • Oct 16, 40.87 m, +2 cm, Safe
  • Oct 17, 40.85 m, −2 cm, Safe
  • Oct 18, 40.85 m, +0 cm, Safe
  • Oct 19, 40.87 m, +2 cm, Safe
  • Oct 20, 40.86 m, −1 cm, Safe
  • Oct 21, 40.88 m, +2 cm, Safe
  • Oct 22, 40.85 m, −3 cm, Safe
  • Oct 16, 0.01 in of rain
  • Oct 17, 0.2 in of rain
  • Oct 18, 0.7 in of rain
  • Oct 19, 0.07 in of rain
  • Oct 20, 0.77 in of rain

Carraízo, October 22

Level today
40.85 mSafe band
Change since yesterday
−3 cm
To the Watch line
1.15 mline at 39.70 m
At this week's pace
holding

La Plata: down 9 cm

La Plata slipped overnight. This morning’s chart puts it at 42.97 meters, down 9 centimeters from yesterday, in the Adjustments band (Ajustes). The next line on the chart, into the Control band, sits at 40.50 meters, 2.47 meters below this morning’s reading. At this week’s pace that is about 35 days away (at this pace, November 27: a projection, not a forecast; one wet afternoon moves it).

If your water comes from La Plata (Dorado, Guaynabo, Naranjito, Toa Alta, Toa Baja, Vega Alta, Bayamón, Cataño, Corozal), this is the reservoir to watch; AAA lists 130,828 client accounts on it.

Adjustments Watch Safe 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 Aug 24 Sep 22 Oct 22 Oct 3, 43.87 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, Adjustments Aug 24, 45.28 m, WatchAug 25, 45.23 m, −5 cm, WatchAug 26, 45.15 m, −8 cm, WatchAug 27, 45.04 m, −11 cm, WatchAug 28, 44.93 m, −11 cm, WatchAug 29, 44.83 m, −10 cm, AdjustmentsAug 30, 44.72 m, −11 cm, AdjustmentsAug 31, 44.67 m, −5 cm, AdjustmentsSep 1, 44.59 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsSep 2, 44.59 m, +0 cm, AdjustmentsSep 3, 44.59 m, +0 cm, AdjustmentsSep 4, 44.57 m, −2 cm, AdjustmentsSep 5, 44.54 m, −3 cm, AdjustmentsSep 6, 44.52 m, −2 cm, AdjustmentsSep 7, 44.46 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsSep 8, 44.40 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsSep 9, 44.32 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsSep 10, 44.24 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsSep 11, 44.14 m, −10 cm, AdjustmentsSep 12, 44.25 m, +11 cm, AdjustmentsSep 13, 44.26 m, +1 cm, AdjustmentsSep 14, 44.40 m, +14 cm, AdjustmentsSep 15, 44.46 m, +6 cm, AdjustmentsSep 16, 44.40 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsSep 17, 44.36 m, −4 cm, AdjustmentsSep 18, 44.40 m, +4 cm, AdjustmentsSep 19, 44.61 m, +21 cm, AdjustmentsSep 20, 44.66 m, +5 cm, AdjustmentsSep 21, 44.70 m, +4 cm, AdjustmentsSep 22, 44.72 m, +2 cm, AdjustmentsSep 23, 44.68 m, −4 cm, AdjustmentsSep 24, 44.63 m, −5 cm, AdjustmentsSep 25, 44.56 m, −7 cm, AdjustmentsSep 26, 44.47 m, −9 cm, AdjustmentsSep 27, 44.39 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsSep 28, 44.31 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsSep 29, 44.22 m, −9 cm, AdjustmentsSep 30, 44.13 m, −9 cm, AdjustmentsOct 1, 44.04 m, −9 cm, AdjustmentsOct 2, 43.96 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsOct 4, 43.79 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsOct 5, 43.71 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsOct 6, 43.70 m, −1 cm, AdjustmentsOct 7, 43.68 m, −2 cm, AdjustmentsOct 8, 43.62 m, −6 cm, AdjustmentsOct 9, 43.54 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsOct 10, 43.52 m, −2 cm, AdjustmentsOct 11, 43.50 m, −2 cm, AdjustmentsOct 12, 43.45 m, −5 cm, AdjustmentsOct 13, 43.45 m, +0 cm, AdjustmentsOct 14, 43.50 m, +5 cm, AdjustmentsOct 15, 43.47 m, −3 cm, AdjustmentsOct 16, 43.39 m, −8 cm, AdjustmentsOct 17, 43.29 m, −10 cm, AdjustmentsOct 18, 43.18 m, −11 cm, AdjustmentsOct 19, 43.07 m, −11 cm, AdjustmentsOct 20, 43.00 m, −7 cm, AdjustmentsOct 21, 43.06 m, +6 cm, AdjustmentsOct 22, 42.97 m, −9 cm, Adjustments 42.97 m at ~7 cm/day Oct 17, 0.01 in of rainOct 18, 0.2 in of rain rain to 0.20 in
La Plata since Aug 24, meters above sea level, shaded by AAA alert band, with daily rain from gauges USGS runs within 12 km. Data: AAA Monitoreo Diario; hollow points are the USGS gauge's 5 AM reading on mornings AAA's chart has none (AAA's own record here starts Aug 24).
Show the numbers
  • Aug 24, 45.28 m, Watch
  • Aug 25, 45.23 m, −5 cm, Watch
  • Aug 26, 45.15 m, −8 cm, Watch
  • Aug 27, 45.04 m, −11 cm, Watch
  • Aug 28, 44.93 m, −11 cm, Watch
  • Aug 29, 44.83 m, −10 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 30, 44.72 m, −11 cm, Adjustments
  • Aug 31, 44.67 m, −5 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 1, 44.59 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 2, 44.59 m, +0 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 3, 44.59 m, +0 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 4, 44.57 m, −2 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 5, 44.54 m, −3 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 6, 44.52 m, −2 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 7, 44.46 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 8, 44.40 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 9, 44.32 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 10, 44.24 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 11, 44.14 m, −10 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 12, 44.25 m, +11 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 13, 44.26 m, +1 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 14, 44.40 m, +14 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 15, 44.46 m, +6 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 16, 44.40 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 17, 44.36 m, −4 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 18, 44.40 m, +4 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 19, 44.61 m, +21 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 20, 44.66 m, +5 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 21, 44.70 m, +4 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 22, 44.72 m, +2 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 23, 44.68 m, −4 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 24, 44.63 m, −5 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 25, 44.56 m, −7 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 26, 44.47 m, −9 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 27, 44.39 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 28, 44.31 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 29, 44.22 m, −9 cm, Adjustments
  • Sep 30, 44.13 m, −9 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 1, 44.04 m, −9 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 2, 43.96 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 3, 43.87 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, Adjustments
  • Oct 4, 43.79 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 5, 43.71 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 6, 43.70 m, −1 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 7, 43.68 m, −2 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 8, 43.62 m, −6 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 9, 43.54 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 10, 43.52 m, −2 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 11, 43.50 m, −2 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 12, 43.45 m, −5 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 13, 43.45 m, +0 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 14, 43.50 m, +5 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 15, 43.47 m, −3 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 16, 43.39 m, −8 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 17, 43.29 m, −10 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 18, 43.18 m, −11 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 19, 43.07 m, −11 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 20, 43.00 m, −7 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 21, 43.06 m, +6 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 22, 42.97 m, −9 cm, Adjustments
  • Oct 17, 0.01 in of rain
  • Oct 18, 0.2 in of rain

La Plata, October 22

Level today
42.97 mAdjustments band
Change since yesterday
−9 cm
To the Control line
2.47 mline at 40.50 m
At this week's pace
about 35 daysat this pace: November 27

Cidra: the other rationing reservoir

Level today
400.63 mWatch band
Change since yesterday
0 cm
To the Adjustments line
0.40 mline at 400.23 m
At this week's pace
holding

Outlook

What the numbers say

The week’s pattern is mostly stillness, with one exception. Carraízo and Cidra are both effectively flat, their weekly movement inside chart-reading noise. Carraízo has held in the Safe band, and the rain this week nudged it up only a couple of centimeters the morning after each wet day. Cidra tells a similar story: about two inches of rain fell near it, yet the next-morning readings barely registered. In both cases, rain is slowing losses rather than rebuilding storage.

La Plata is the reservoir to watch. It is falling at 7 cm a day this week, against 1.2 cm a day the week before, so the decline is speeding up, and it received only 0.21 in of rain nearby. It sits in the Adjustments band, 2.47 m above the Control line. If this week’s pace simply continued, it would reach that line around November 27. That is arithmetic, not a forecast, and a few wet days would change it quickly.

What to watch

  • Naranjito: whether AAA extends its Cedro Arriba plan (the calendar runs through October 31), changes the phase or ends it.

Lake levels

The gauge USGS runs at Carraízo read 40.84 meters at 5:45 AM. The gauge USGS runs at La Plata read 42.96 meters at 5:45 AM. The gauge USGS runs at Cidra read 400.63 meters at 5:45 AM.

The gauges report every quarter hour and their readings are provisional; the bands are measured on AAA’s 5:00 chart.

How we read the data

This is the 66th Daily Water Watch (yesterday’s is here). The levels update every morning on the water page.

Levels: AAA’s daily reservoir chart, October 22. Rain: gauges USGS runs within 12 km of each reservoir. Day counts start August 7, when the metro rotation took effect. Straight-line dates are arithmetic, not forecasts. How we report.

In context

About this analysis
Cite this

Source: 787daily, “Daily Water Watch, Oct 22: Carraízo at 40.85 m”, Oct 22, 2026, https://787daily.com/news/2026-10-22-daily-water-watch-carraizo-at-40-85-m/

Numbers from
AAA's 5 AM reservoir chart, validated daily
Use our data
Today (JSON) · Reservoir history (CSV).Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0: credit 787daily.com with a link.

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