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Today’s Briefing

Infrastructure

Daily Water Watch: Toa Vaca Enters the Observación Band

Published Oct 1, 2026 · 787 Daily · Original analysis

Toa Vaca crossed into the observación band this morning, at 146.99 meters. This morning’s 5:00 chart from the Autoridad de Acueductos y Alcantarillados shows Carraízo at 40.47 meters — down 4 centimeters from yesterday.

Service today

Day 55 of the metro rotation plan — interruptions paused since September 2, AAA has not cancelled the plan.

Most important now

  • Cordillera plant out in Ciales, posted September 28 at 9:05 AM: AAA’s notice

Every notice AAA posts is on the water page, in its own words.

Reservoirs

Carraízo: down 4 cm

Carraízo kept sliding. This morning’s chart puts it at 40.47 meters — down 4 centimeters from yesterday, in the seguridad band. The next line on the chart — into the observación band — sits at 39.70 meters, 0.77 meters below this morning’s reading. At AAA’s printed pace that is about 19 days away (straight-line date: 2026-10-21 — a projection, not a forecast; one wet afternoon moves it).

ajustes observación seguridad 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 39.0 39.5 40.0 40.5 41.0 Aug 3 Sep 1 Oct 1 Aug 3, 37.80 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, ajustesAug 4, 37.73 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, ajustesAug 5, 37.71 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, ajustesAug 6, 37.68 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, ajustesAug 8, 37.58 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, ajustes Aug 7, 37.64 m, −4 cm, ajustesAug 9, 37.53 m, −5 cm, ajustesAug 10, 37.48 m, −5 cm, ajustesAug 11, 37.43 m, −5 cm, ajustesAug 12, 37.53 m, +10 cm, ajustesAug 13, 37.79 m, +26 cm, ajustesAug 14, 37.86 m, +7 cm, ajustesAug 15, 37.85 m, −1 cm, ajustesAug 16, 37.82 m, −3 cm, ajustesAug 17, 37.76 m, −6 cm, ajustesAug 18, 37.69 m, −7 cm, ajustesAug 19, 37.63 m, −6 cm, ajustesAug 20, 37.57 m, −6 cm, ajustesAug 21, 37.52 m, −5 cm, ajustesAug 22, 37.46 m, −6 cm, ajustesAug 23, 37.41 m, −5 cm, ajustesAug 24, 37.34 m, −7 cm, ajustesAug 25, 37.32 m, −2 cm, ajustesAug 26, 37.30 m, −2 cm, ajustesAug 27, 37.26 m, −4 cm, ajustesAug 28, 37.20 m, −6 cm, ajustesAug 29, 37.14 m, −6 cm, ajustesAug 30, 37.07 m, −7 cm, ajustesAug 31, 37.14 m, +7 cm, ajustesSep 1, 37.20 m, +6 cm, ajustesSep 2, 38.92 m, +172 cm, observaciónSep 3, 39.11 m, +19 cm, observaciónSep 4, 39.09 m, −2 cm, observaciónSep 5, 39.01 m, −8 cm, observaciónSep 6, 38.94 m, −7 cm, observaciónSep 7, 38.87 m, −7 cm, observaciónSep 8, 38.83 m, −4 cm, observaciónSep 9, 39.02 m, +19 cm, observaciónSep 10, 39.07 m, +5 cm, observaciónSep 11, 39.20 m, +13 cm, observaciónSep 12, 39.19 m, −1 cm, observaciónSep 13, 39.14 m, −5 cm, observaciónSep 14, 39.16 m, +2 cm, observaciónSep 15, 39.25 m, +9 cm, observaciónSep 16, 39.23 m, −2 cm, observaciónSep 17, 40.06 m, +83 cm, seguridadSep 18, 40.64 m, +58 cm, seguridadSep 19, 40.80 m, +16 cm, seguridadSep 20, 40.81 m, +1 cm, seguridadSep 21, 40.79 m, −2 cm, seguridadSep 22, 40.75 m, −4 cm, seguridadSep 23, 40.70 m, −5 cm, seguridadSep 24, 40.68 m, −2 cm, seguridadSep 25, 40.68 m, +0 cm, seguridadSep 26, 40.67 m, −1 cm, seguridadSep 27, 40.63 m, −4 cm, seguridadSep 28, 40.58 m, −5 cm, seguridadSep 29, 40.53 m, −5 cm, seguridadSep 30, 40.51 m, −2 cm, seguridadOct 1, 40.47 m, −4 cm, seguridad 40.47 m at ~4 cm/day Sep 29, 0.28 in of rainSep 30, 0.53 in of rainOct 1, 0.07 in of rain rain to 0.53 in
Carraízo since Aug 3, metres above sea level, shaded by AAA alert band, with daily rain from USGS gauges within 12 km. Data: AAA Monitoreo Diario; hollow points are the USGS gauge's 5 AM reading on days before AAA's record (from Aug 7).

Carraízo, October 1

Level today
40.47 mband: seguridad
Change since yesterday
-4 cm
To the observación line
0.77 mline at 39.70 m
At the current pace
about 19 daysstraight-line date: 2026-10-21

La Plata: down 9 cm

La Plata kept sliding. This morning’s chart puts it at 44.04 meters — down 9 centimeters from yesterday, in the ajustes band. The next line on the chart — into the control band — sits at 40.50 meters, 3.54 meters below this morning’s reading. At AAA’s printed pace that is about 39 days away (straight-line date: 2026-11-10 — a projection, not a forecast; one wet afternoon moves it).

If your water comes from La Plata — Dorado, Guaynabo, Naranjito, Toa Alta, Toa Baja, Vega Alta, Bayamón, Cataño, Corozal — this is the reservoir to watch; AAA lists 130,828 client accounts on it.

ajustes observación seguridad 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 Aug 3 Sep 1 Oct 1 Aug 3, 46.88 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, observaciónAug 4, 46.79 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, observaciónAug 5, 46.72 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, observaciónAug 6, 46.63 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, observaciónAug 8, 46.46 m, USGS gauge at 5 AM, observación Aug 7, 46.55 m, −8 cm, observaciónAug 9, 46.38 m, −8 cm, observaciónAug 10, 46.29 m, −9 cm, observaciónAug 11, 46.20 m, −9 cm, observaciónAug 12, 46.16 m, −4 cm, observaciónAug 13, 46.11 m, −5 cm, observaciónAug 14, 46.02 m, −9 cm, observaciónAug 15, 45.95 m, −7 cm, observaciónAug 16, 45.88 m, −7 cm, observaciónAug 17, 45.80 m, −8 cm, observaciónAug 18, 45.71 m, −9 cm, observaciónAug 19, 45.62 m, −9 cm, observaciónAug 20, 45.55 m, −7 cm, observaciónAug 21, 45.49 m, −6 cm, observaciónAug 22, 45.42 m, −7 cm, observaciónAug 23, 45.35 m, −7 cm, observaciónAug 24, 45.28 m, −7 cm, observaciónAug 25, 45.23 m, −5 cm, observaciónAug 26, 45.15 m, −8 cm, observaciónAug 27, 45.04 m, −11 cm, observaciónAug 28, 44.93 m, −11 cm, observaciónAug 29, 44.83 m, −10 cm, ajustesAug 30, 44.72 m, −11 cm, ajustesAug 31, 44.67 m, −5 cm, ajustesSep 1, 44.59 m, −8 cm, ajustesSep 2, 44.59 m, +0 cm, ajustesSep 3, 44.59 m, +0 cm, ajustesSep 4, 44.57 m, −2 cm, ajustesSep 5, 44.54 m, −3 cm, ajustesSep 6, 44.52 m, −2 cm, ajustesSep 7, 44.46 m, −6 cm, ajustesSep 8, 44.40 m, −6 cm, ajustesSep 9, 44.32 m, −8 cm, ajustesSep 10, 44.24 m, −8 cm, ajustesSep 11, 44.14 m, −10 cm, ajustesSep 12, 44.25 m, +11 cm, ajustesSep 13, 44.26 m, +1 cm, ajustesSep 14, 44.40 m, +14 cm, ajustesSep 15, 44.46 m, +6 cm, ajustesSep 16, 44.40 m, −6 cm, ajustesSep 17, 44.36 m, −4 cm, ajustesSep 18, 44.40 m, +4 cm, ajustesSep 19, 44.61 m, +21 cm, ajustesSep 20, 44.66 m, +5 cm, ajustesSep 21, 44.70 m, +4 cm, ajustesSep 22, 44.72 m, +2 cm, ajustesSep 23, 44.68 m, −4 cm, ajustesSep 24, 44.63 m, −5 cm, ajustesSep 25, 44.56 m, −7 cm, ajustesSep 26, 44.47 m, −9 cm, ajustesSep 27, 44.39 m, −8 cm, ajustesSep 28, 44.31 m, −8 cm, ajustesSep 29, 44.22 m, −9 cm, ajustesSep 30, 44.13 m, −9 cm, ajustesOct 1, 44.04 m, −9 cm, ajustes 44.04 m at ~9 cm/day Sep 25, 0.02 in of rainSep 26, 0.2 in of rainSep 27, 0.06 in of rainSep 29, 0.22 in of rainSep 30, 0.5 in of rainOct 1, 0.01 in of rain rain to 0.50 in
La Plata since Aug 3, metres above sea level, shaded by AAA alert band, with daily rain from USGS gauges within 12 km. Data: AAA Monitoreo Diario; hollow points are the USGS gauge's 5 AM reading on days before AAA's record (from Aug 7).

La Plata, October 1

Level today
44.04 mband: ajustes
Change since yesterday
-9 cm
To the control line
3.54 mline at 40.50 m
At the current pace
about 39 daysstraight-line date: 2026-11-10

The other rationing reservoir

Cidra, October 1

Level today
400.54 mband: observación
Change since yesterday
+1 cm
To the ajustes line
0.31 mline at 400.23 m
At the current pace
rising

Outlook

What the numbers say

Over the past week Carraízo has been falling an average of 3.5 cm a day, about the same pace as the week before (0.7 cm a day). That is 6 straight mornings lower, -21 cm in all. Since the rotation began 54 days ago it has gained 289 cm, from 37.58 m. It sits 0.77 m above the observación line (the next band down), at 40.47 m in the seguridad band. At this week’s pace the observación line (39.70 m) is about 22 days away — around October 23; arithmetic, not a forecast. Nearby USGS gauges recorded 0.88 in of rain this week, most of it September 30 (0.53 in). After the 0.53 in on September 30, the next morning’s reading was -4 cm.

Over the past week La Plata has been falling an average of 8.7 cm a day, about the same pace as the week before (3.8 cm a day). That is 9 straight mornings lower, -68 cm in all. Since August 8 it has lost 242 cm, from 46.46 m. It sits 3.54 m above the control line (the next band down), at 44.04 m in the ajustes band. At this week’s pace the control line (40.50 m) is about 41 days away — around November 11; arithmetic, not a forecast. Nearby USGS gauges recorded 1.01 in of rain this week, most of it September 30 (0.5 in). After the 0.5 in on September 30, the next morning’s reading was -9 cm.

Over the past week Cidra has been rising an average of 0.2 cm a day. Since August 8 it has gained 39 cm, from 400.15 m. It sits 0.31 m above the ajustes line (the next band down), at 400.54 m in the observación band. The week’s net movement is inside chart-reading noise — effectively flat. Nearby USGS gauges recorded 1.43 in of rain this week, most of it September 29 (0.68 in). After the 0.68 in on September 29, the next morning’s reading was +2 cm. After the 0.53 in on September 30, the next morning’s reading was +1 cm.

What to watch

  • Río Grande, Canóvanas and Loíza: whether AAA says in public that the east-side rationing is over, and posts that the Canóvanas filtration plant is back in operation.

Lake levels

The USGS gauge at Carraízo read 40.47 meters at 5:45 AM. The USGS gauge at La Plata read 44.03 meters at 5:45 AM. The USGS gauge at Cidra read 400.54 meters at 5:45 AM.

The gauges report every quarter hour and their readings are provisional; the bands are measured on AAA’s 5:00 chart.

How we read the data

This is the 49th entry in our daily chart check (yesterday’s is here), built the same way every morning — from AAA’s own numbers, read off its charts for our reservoir board.

Numbers from AAA’s Monitoreo Diario chart of 2026-10-01, read each morning for our reservoir board — where the levels, the bands, and the live rain gauges update daily. Rain figures are USGS gauges within 12 km of each reservoir (a proximity proxy, not a basin measurement). Day counts start 2026-08-08, when the metro rotation took effect. Straight-line dates are arithmetic, not forecasts.